By Jan Hennop and Matthew Walsh
Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth is the keynote speaker at the opening of Asia’s top defense summit on Friday, but China’s top officials are not expected despite thorny questions such as Taiwan and the war in Iran.
Beijing’s defense minister will skip the three-day Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore for the second consecutive year, which analysts saw as a sign of China’s growing power.
However, the forum that brings together senior officials from some 45 countries has historically provided an environment for debate as well as quiet, high-profile diplomacy.
Defense Minister Dong Jun’s absence means he will not meet Hegseth there, as China warns the US about its involvement with Taiwan and Washington seeks to end the war in the Middle East.
The Middle East was the source of 57 percent of China’s direct crude oil imports in 2025 – 5.9 million barrels per day (mbd) – maritime tracking firm Kpler said.
Hegseth’s second trip to the Shangri-La Dialogue follows US President Donald Trump’s visit to China in May and his subsequent suggestion that US arms sales to Taiwan could be used as a bargaining chip with Beijing.
See also: China is ‘preparing’ to use military force in Asia, US says
Hegseth’s speech on Saturday is expected to be “quite strong against China, but mostly for domestic (US) consumption,” said Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
“I think under Trump everything is negotiable and even with enemies deals can be made … (even) with Taiwan as a bargaining chip,” Oh told AFP.
Trump said “fantastic” trade deal. were struck after his visit to China, although details were unclear and no progress with Beijing appeared on the war with Iran.
China became a ‘great power’
As the US and Iran clashed again on Thursday, threatening to derail a fragile push for peace, “it is unlikely that any potential deal will be discussed at the Shangri-La Dialogue,” Oh said.
China sent Dong to dialogue as early as 2024, where he and then Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin met for their first substantial face-to-face talks in 18 months.
“Dong was absent last year, reportedly because of China’s reluctance to engage with … Hegseth,” said William Choong, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak institute.
China said Thursday it will send experts and researchers from its military’s study institutions.
Major General Meng Xiangqing of the National Defense University will lead the delegation, which will include researchers from the National Defense University, the Academy of Military Sciences and the Navy.
Two other former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu spoke earlier at Shangri-La. Both were later gave suspended death sentences for corruption chargesanalysts emphasize.
“It’s kind of a poisoned chalice for any Chinese defense minister to speak publicly,” said Jennifer Parker, an assistant professor at the Defense and Security Institute at the University of Western Australia.
With Dong not participating again, one of the reasons seemed clear, Choong said, writing for the Lowy Institute think-tank.
“For one thing, China has really emerged as a major power in the region, so it doesn’t need to send its defense minister to face a barrage of questions and try to ‘score’ other points,” he said.
However, Beijing, like last year, risked not having a top leader present if the two most important global security issues – Taiwan and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz – come up.
“At a time when perceptions of US leadership are declining, Beijing could calm some jittery nerves in the region by assuring delegates that it would use force against the island only as a last resort,” Choong said.
AUKUS focus
The defense ministers of the United States, Britain and Australia – members of the AUKUS security alliance – will also meet.
AUKUS’ stated goal is to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region, although it is widely seen as a bulwark against a rising China, which strongly opposes the pact.
Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said on Friday that Canberra was seeking to “maintain the rules-based global order” in the region.
“We’ve seen China engage in a very significant military buildup … and it hasn’t happened with the kind of strategic certainty that (we) would have expected,” he told reporters at the forum.
“Basically, we want to have a productive relationship with China. We want to live in a world governed by rules.”
Australian media have reported, citing unnamed sources, that the AUKUS nations are expected to announce a major project, possibly involving unmanned underwater vehicles.
