The possibility of Shivakumar’s elevation to the post of CM spells bad news for the JD(S).
The apparent shift in Vokkaligas’ support to the Congress in the 2023 Assembly elections, driven largely by the belief that Shivakumar would become the CM, was cited as one of the main reasons for the JD(S)’s poor showing. Shivakumar’s emergence as a dominant Vokkaliga leader could threaten the political future of former prime minister HD Deve Gowda’s family.
A political analyst said the triumph of the Congress party in the Old Mysore region in the 2023 polls as evidence of growing support among Vokkaligas for Shivakumar. “In Mandya, Vokkaligas shifted allegiance from JD(S) to Congress,” the analyst said. The Vokkaligas, experts said, are excited at the prospect of a leader from their community occupying the top post. “He has a connection with rural and urban voters,” said one expert. Deve Gowda’s position as a Vokkaliga strongman, however, remains unassailable, several other experts said.
“Gowda’s influence will last for a long period. Shivakumar may not command the loyalty of the entire community and his support is likely to be split between the two leaders,” said Chambi Puranik, a political analyst.
The BJP central leadership is likely to project Kumaraswamy as the CM candidate in 2028 as the saffron party is keen to secure the support of one of the largest communities, Puranik added.
Senior journalist C Rudrappa said, “The many protests the former chief minister led to protect the interests of the Vokkaligas gave him enduring popularity. However, in the last election, we saw the Vokkaligas favoring Shivakumar,” he added.
Rudrappa said the 2028 elections would be challenging for the JD(S). “This could also affect the BJP, which is in an alliance with the JD(S). Shivakumar could secure the support of young voters in the Vokkaliga community,” Rudrappa said.
“Both Gowda and Shivakumar are politicians through and through, both have crossed the urban-rural divide and are street warriors,” he said.
