“Burnham ahead at Makerfield,” booms the Survation headline. This is what many expected after his announcement a few weeks ago. An Andy Burnham candidacy was always likely to boost Labor far beyond what a general Labor candidate could achieve. Now there is a poll in the constituency to back this up.
But notice the difference: three points. It’s a few hundred votes – maybe a thousand if turnout is high. Without Burnham, the Reformation would have taken a commanding direction. And note also who’s in third place: far-right “deport them all” party Restore Britain. Another breakaway from an outfit led by Nigel Farage, Restore performed strongly in the Great Yarmouth local elections and some polls now put it between 2 and 5 per cent.
If those polls are correct (and it remains uncertain whether pollsters oversample the online terminal), then Restore should be expected to do better in Makerfield – a whiter, more working-class, more socially conservative constituency than average. One would expect the party to easily keep its deposit. The counter-argument, however, is that a close Labour-Reform race tightens the vote sharply. After all, Reform and Restoration are fishing in much the same pool.
So for Survation to find Restore at 7 per cent is eye-watering – especially given that Burnham’s lead sits in the top three spots, right where Britain Predict had it a few weeks ago.
Subscribe to the New Statesman for £1 a week
Makerfield is a patchwork of small towns and villages, plus the southern third of Wigan itself. All of it is within the Wigan council area, where Reform beat Labor in every ward at the last election. But spending time in the chair – and hearing reports and looking at pictures from Labor campaigners – has shown me that the threat of the Reset is real.
Labor sources say they are hearing on the doorstep how many voters are referring to Reinstatement as Reform. (Surprisingly, they also report not meeting many Labor – or Burnham – supporters.) Doorstep impressions can exaggerate fringe enthusiasm; higher voices tend to dominate. But between what is being reported on the ground and the only constituency poll we have, Restore appears to have genuine supporters – who may yet give Reform the seat.
But Restore is still primarily an Internet phenomenon. While only around a quarter of Britons can correctly identify Greens leader Zack Polanski from a photograph, only 5 to 10 per cent can do the same for Restoration leader Rupert Lowe.
We know that Restore gets a boost from Elon Musk and X. We know that Restore sometimes outperforms Reform in likes and posts, aided by algorithmic visibility. Twitter is not Britain. However, voters have become increasingly dependent on social media for news and political content. Either Survation – as some pollsters and critics argue – is over-sampling highly engaged online respondents who know about Restore, or it has picked up on the real thing.
It is evident that the pattern is also appearing in the canvas returns. Labor activists are saying this and it is giving them confidence. However, this belief may be misplaced. During Ukip’s heyday, right-wing gains often came through lower, not higher, turnout. The emerging evidence for Reform suggests the opposite: it performs better where participation increases. New voters are emerging and disproportionately for Reform.
The same pattern appears with Restore. In the Norfolk divisions where Restore won, participation increased significantly. Take Yarmouth North and Central: about 2,200 votes were cast last time; in May, around 3,000. The Magdalen division – formerly Labour, now Restoration – saw the turnout rise from 2,243 in 2021 to 3,606 this May. It is hard not to conclude that the radical right is energizing disengaged voters.
If this is happening in Makerfield, those voters may stay loyal to their respective parties, splitting the vote and making a Burnham victory easier, not harder. Or – if they’re active, online and very politically aware – they might decide to support Reform to stop Burnham. Labor’s fear is a final online – but very real – tactical-voting opposition. The restoration may hold true to his rhetoric of deporting them all. May criticize Farage publicly. But if her voters see Burnham as the biggest threat, don’t be surprised if that 7 per cent halves – and Labour’s prospects with it.
(Further reading: Will Brexit derail Andy Burnham’s Makerfield campaign?)
Content from our partners
