A new Scottish Parliament and a familiar story. A convincing electoral victory of the NPSH. An SNP minister first elected to the House of Holyrood and then sworn in to the Court of Session. A new SNP cabinet posing for photographs on the steps of Bute House. Work is underway to produce another SNP Program for Government. A new independence motion will be tabled in parliament. Opposition parties waiting for another five years.
Given the quarter century in power the Nats have been given by the Scottish electorate, it may be increasingly difficult to see Scotland as much more than a one-party state. The nation certainly seems to have a guy, a confirmed favourite: welcome to Natland. Regardless of the level of scandal surrounding them, regardless of the level of highly visible, highly damaging policy failure, regardless of the deceptive strategies and tactics adopted by their rivals in the hope of bringing them down, the SNP wins. Then they win again. And then they win again.
True, 2026 may not mark the most overwhelming triumph in the party’s history. Their share of the vote was greatly reduced in 2021 and they were helped by a large split in unionist support due to the rise of Reform. But until their time in government, the fact that the SNP is still winning – still dominating – is surely cause for reflection. The gap tells its own story – 58 seats for the Nats, just 17 each for Labor and Reform, miles behind in joint second place. There is no longer even a main opposition party. On First Minister’s Questions, Anas Sarwar and Malcolm Offord will ask John Swinney’s first questions every week.
If NPSH is the only show in town, if that’s what we’ve been given, then we should be hoping for some highlights. Swinney announced his cabinet this week. It’s possible to see many of the same old faces, even if they’re shuffled between jobs, and heave a weary sigh. Here we go again, more of the same. I’m too long in the tooth, I’ve been disappointed too often over the years, to expect much from modern politics. My focus is both unfashionable and often despised. Governments are not elected by people like me these days. The energy is elsewhere.
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But somehow, I can never extinguish the optimism that comes with each new parliament, each new group, that clever promotion here, that intriguing pitch there. So there are a few things about the new ministerial team that stand out to me. The lead is Ivan McKee. McKee was Kate Forbes’ closest ally in government. Forbes regrettably stood down as First Deputy Minister and an MSP in the election, but she was the true and staunch champion of business, economic growth and enterprise in the Cabinet. McKee is the other person in government who has shown similar convictions. A former businessman himself, as junior minister in the previous administration he developed a plan to rationalize the size of government, reduce public spending and introduce a more pragmatic approach to what is affordable.
Ultimately, that’s the main challenge facing Swinney. The Scottish Government faces a £5bn annual gap between spending and income in this parliament. This should have been the key debate among our political leaders throughout the election campaign – it will be the central fact of our politics in the second half of this decade and perhaps beyond. Instead, it was barely mentioned, as the main parties focused on the usual unattainable bribes and gifts. More than anything else, it has shone an unforgiving light on the frustrating immaturity of Scottish politics and the Holyrood parliament. Fiscal numbers are not made up, they are inevitable and will soon have to be faced. And yet the electorate has remained unwarned and unprepared for the difficult elections ahead.
That’s why McKee could prove the key appointment. It aims to achieve efficiencies and savings of £1.5bn. The Scottish Fiscal Commission has said it is not sure, given the approach to public spending taken by the SNP so far, that this is likely to happen. McKee’s elevation to the cabinet at least suggests that Swinney is beginning to acknowledge the need for some punitive choices in the coming months and years. The First Minister must empower his colleague to do what we all know must be done.
Stephen Flynn as Economy Secretary is another interesting choice. The former SNP Westminster leader is a Bulgarian figurehead and a fine parliamentary performer and is often regarded as Swinney’s most reliable successor. However, he has never run a department before, and now he has to show what he can do on the policy front. His beat includes the transport portfolio, which has been a constant source of trouble for the Nats (ferries, doubling the A9). Will he come a cutter? Is that Swinney’s goal? And will he, as an Aberdeenshire MSP, continue to champion the oil and gas industry? One hopes so.
There are other signs of life at Holyrood. Kenny Gibson, who despite being an SNP MSP was an impressively independent-minded chairman of the finance committee in the last parliament, has been elected Presiding Officer, Holyrood’s equivalent of Speaker. He defeated the SNP’s preferred leadership candidate, loyalist Claire Haughey, in a secret ballot of MSPs, suggesting a refreshing spirit of rebellion among at least some of the new members. Gibson aims to shake up the rules governing Holyrood, empowering the legislature at the expense of the executive. This is long overdue. Another improvement: committee chairs will now be chosen by MSPs rather than party leaders, which will hopefully bring more Kenny Gibsons.
So this could still be SNP Scotland, still Natland. But there are some signs that Holyrood may finally be allowed to grow a little. It will be better for all of us if Swinney doesn’t always get his way.
(Further reading: Keir Starmer is a dishonest man)
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