Iran threatened on Wednesday to spread the war across the Middle East if the United States strikes again, after President Donald Trump said he had arrived within an hour of the resumption of the military campaign.
Six weeks since Trump called off Operation Epic Fury for a ceasefire, talks to end the war have largely stalled.
Iran presented a new offer to the United States this week, but its public accounts of repeating terms previously rejected by Trump, including demands for control of Strait of Hormuzcompensation for war damages, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen assets and the withdrawal of US troops from the area.
Trump said on Monday, and again on Tuesday, that he was close to ordering a new bombing campaign but had postponed it at the last minute to give more time to diplomacy.
“I was an hour away from making the decision to go today,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to retaliate for any new attacks by striking Middle Eastern countries that host US bases. On Wednesday it suggested it would also hit targets further afield.
“If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will extend beyond the region this time,” the Revolutionary Guards said in a statement broadcast on state media.
Chinese tankers cross the strait
Iran has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz to all but its own ships since the start of the US-Israeli campaign in February, causing the biggest disruption to global energy supplies in history. The United States responded last month with its own blockade of Iran’s ports.
Two giant Chinese tankers loaded with about 4 million barrels of oil left the strait on Wednesday, the latest sign that Iran is willing to ease its blockade on countries it considers friendly. Iran announced last week, while Trump was in Beijing for a summit, that it had reached an agreement to ease rules on Chinese ships.
South Korea’s foreign minister said on Wednesday a Korean tanker was crossing the strait in cooperation with Iran.
Shipping monitor Lloyd’s List said at least 54 ships had transited the strait last week, about double the number from the week before. But that’s still only a fraction of the roughly 140 days that usually passed before war.
Pressure to end the war
Trump is under pressure to end the war, with rising energy prices hurting his Republican Party ahead of congressional elections in November. Since the ceasefire in late April, his public comments have ranged from threats to resume bombing to declarations that a peace deal was close, often in the same breath.
On Tuesday he said the war would end “very soon”. Vice President JD Vance, who led the US delegation last month to the only round of peace talks so far, also spoke of progress: “We’re in a pretty good place here,” Vance said at a White House press conference.
Fluctuating US stances have sent oil prices bouncing up and down from day to day, although they have risen week after week since early May. One-month Brent crude futures eased about 1.5% on Wednesday morning, slightly below $110 a barrel but still well above last week.
“Investors are keen to assess whether Washington and Tehran can actually find common ground and reach a peace deal, with the US position changing daily,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
Ceasefire keeping mostly
US-Israeli bombing killed thousands of people in Iran before it was suspended in a ceasefire in early April. Israel has also killed thousands more and driven hundreds of thousands from their homes in Lebanon, which it occupied in pursuit of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia.
Iranian attacks on Israel and neighboring Gulf states have killed dozens of people.
The Iran ceasefire has largely held, although there was an increase in attacks on ships and Gulf states in early May, when Trump announced a naval mission to reopen the strait. Trump canceled that mission, Project Freedom, after just 48 hours.
This week saw a new barrage of drones launched into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which they said were coming from Iraq, where militias allied with Iran operate.
Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said when they launched the war that their goals were to curb Iran’s support for regional militias, dismantle its nuclear program, destroy its missile capabilities and make it easier for the Iranians to overthrow their rulers.
But the war has not yet deprived Iran of its stockpiles of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium or its ability to threaten its neighbors with missiles, drones and proxy militias.
The clerical leadership of the Islamic Republic, which had faced a mass uprising earlier in the year, withstood the onslaught of superpowers with no sign of organized opposition.
