There was a moment yesterday when Labor reached a state of near desperation. Keir Starmer loyalists or not, they appeared to be ending a week of convulsions with Labor weakened, divided and without an answer to their predicament over whether or not to change the leader. “I really don’t know how we come together and get behind this,” mused one government loyalist. Most of the people I spoke to said they were sad, exhausted, lost. The job seemed headed for stasis and more convulsions in the coming weeks, with no resolution in sight.
Then came the news that seems to have changed everything. Andy Burnham has found a place to stay, with caveats attached, and Labor could soon have a contest that the majority in the party wants, with its most popular politician able to be on the ballot. My phone flooded with messages of relief and excitement, including from Wes Streeting supporters who worried that a race without Burnham would seem illegitimate. “It’s been a terrible but necessary week,” concluded one Labor leader. The lockdown may end soon.
Makerfield will not be an easy fight, of course Ben Walker starts here. But in choosing a seat where Labor is currently being decimated by Reform, Burnham is setting the stage for a by-election “proof of concept”. As one supporter put it: “He’s stepped into the fire of the collapse of Labor culture and said, ‘I’m the person who’s going to do this.’ He will present himself as the outsider and the candidate for change, giving voters a sense of what he could offer as Labor leader. If he can defeat Reform here, he will show his party and the country that Labor can win again with him as leader. As I pointed out this week New statesman column, he thinks the stakes of a leadership race after such a victory are much lower.
Now many of my Labor contacts from across the party say they are focused on getting Burnham out. Even Streeting fans tell me they will throw everything at it. They can’t wait to think what happens if he loses, or what it means for Labour’s future.
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But at number 10, the incumbent prime minister is watching all this unfold and feels his power slipping away. He and his allies are furious with Josh Simons for stepping down for Burnham and remain of the view that a change of leader would be chaotic and deeply irresponsible as the country plunges into economic shock from the war in Iran. He’s not politically strong enough to block Burnham’s return, but he’s certainly not happy about it.
As Starmer turns into a lame duck, I have to say his closest allies are keeping quiet about what should or will happen next. Many have already held talks with him in recent weeks to set a timetable, either signaling in a rhetorical move that he will leave in a year or two if things don’t improve, or how to otherwise leave “with dignity”. He has defied them all, digging in to suggest just a week ago that he would stay for 10 years. Friends have recently said that they cannot contact him, that he is not ready to listen to these arguments. When will the political reality be born? Even when it does, what can he do? He faces a very protracted build-up to a leadership challenge. And if Burnham loses this by-election, he could still be prime minister and we could end up where Labor was yesterday afternoon: sad, exhausted, lost, with no way out of its deadlock and no answer to the leadership question.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; get it every morning by subscribing to Substack here
(Further reading: Can Andy Burnham win at Makerfield?)
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