For the second straight series, it’s best of three for the Montreal Canadiens. They won games five and seven against Tampa Bay. They would surely get the same scenario in the Atlantic Division final.
Game 5 was on the road again, and it was the same result. The Canadiens doubled the Buffalo Sabers 6-3.
Wild horses
Although Cole Caufield still has a spot on his 51-goal regular season clip, his latest game proves an old adage: a scorer will figure it out. Caufield is a scorer, but no matter how good any player is at it, there are lulls. Even Alex Ovechkin was calm.
The Canadiens’ opening goal wasn’t just Caufield’s third goal in his last three games. It was the kind of goal he needs to show he can score because the heat map loves where he was. When Caufield is on the perimeter, that’s when he’s more likely to fight.
When he scores from three yards out, it’s clear that he’s in the right areas. His goal in Game 4 was also from three yards out, essentially standing in front of the keeper to beat him. It was a rare five-on-five for the front line as Juraj Slafkovsky’s pass to Nick Suzuki started it.
Just a few minutes later, in an absolutely wild first period, it was Alexandre Carrier who simply threw it towards the net where it hit an unaware Alexandre Texier. It came off Texier’s skate while he was physically engaged with the Buffalo defender.
The second period continued with some of the most open hockey in the entire playoffs. One team had pressure for 50 seconds, then the other team had pressure for 50 seconds. Suzuki’s line was fading, then they had golden chances to score.
One constant in an unpredictable event is always Lane Hutson. The Canadians were down one and they needed a Hutson moment, and he delivered. He drifted to the left side and somehow found Josh Anderson through backdoor traffic for a tap.
Anderson is having a strong playoff run with his number three. Hutson’s 12 points is seventh in playoff scoring.
The Canadians finished the 40 minutes with five goals. Ivan Demidov took a shot from 10 feet that stopped on the goal line. Thankfully for the Canadiens, Jake Evans stepped up first to use it.
It seems likely with eight goals in 40 minutes that there were a lot of power plays, but there was only one for each team. The Canadians scored on theirs. Hutson passed to Slafkovsky and he slipped a nifty one-handed pass to Suzuki, who one-timed it for his fourth of the postseason. Akko-Pekka Luukkonen was not sharp.
Sabers head coach Lindy Ruff had seen enough. Alex Lyon came on for the third period, and he witnessed firsthand the first goal of Demidov’s playoff career. Demidov took a shot upstairs on the power play and the relief was palpable. Demidov had two points, while Suzuki and Slafkovsky each had three points.
Get daily national news
Get Canada’s daily news delivered to your inbox so you never miss the top news of the day.
This was the Canadiens’ best game in the playoffs in hitting percentage. It was total dominance for the first time in these playoffs. Here are the numbers before Lyon pulled with 6:30 left, as it tilts: Evans line one share 86 Expected Goals, Veleno line one share 85, Danault line one share 74.
In defense, Matheson and Carrier with 85 shares, Guhle and Xhekaj with 75 and Hutson and Dobson with 74 shares.
Wild goats
One of the weaknesses of the Canadians this season has been cleaning the net. Lightning didn’t make much use of it. They tried to create plays from the perimeter and work it into the tight end pass. They had only limited success with that quality effort.
A much lower quality offensive build is simply placing a group of bodies in front of the net and shooting from the point, hoping for chaos. This becomes a better strategy when the troops you collect there are large. The Sabers are using this strategy extremely well.
It’s a town hall meeting in front of Jakub Dobes every game and it resulted in two pinball goals in the first half. Jason Zucker threw it through seven bodies for the early count. He was bounced by three different players before counting.
Five minutes later, there was a ton of traffic in front of the Dobes again, and this time Josh Doan scored. Buffalo’s third goal on Dobes was also similar, as Hutson provided the screen that fooled Dobes as he went five-hole. Consta Helenius with the count.
At the time it was felt that Dobes deserved some time off. Focusing so much every single game can be taxing. No fault Dobes, but it didn’t feel like his night with three goals in 10 minutes. Of course, the Goals Saved Above Expected analytics didn’t think much of Dobe’s effort, as he was minus 2.75 on three goals. He finished with a plus 0.42 to show you how mentally tough this kid is.
For the first time in the playoffs, the Canadiens were having a tough time with a stacked offense throwing more bodies up front, sometimes with all five Sabers lower than points. The Canadiens need to create a counter attack for the odd man out of this one. It is available.
A team cannot throw five troops that far without being penalized for it with proper strategy.
Wilde Cards
Only one team has a parade. Thirty-one other teams are forced to assess what they lack in their lineup to have their parade. The missing piece or pieces are usually only revealed when the playoff journey begins. The deeper the travel, the more visible the holes in the plan.
It’s an adage so true that even if you go to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, there’s still a hole on the roster to appreciate. Take last year’s Edmonton Oilers as every fan and member of the media will admit they fell into a scary game due to goaltending and physicality.
As the Canadiens make their way into the second round of the playoffs, some aspects of their game are stronger than expected and others are weaker.
One aspect of the Canadiens game that has held up remarkably well is defense. It was believed that the club was sorely lacking a top-four caliber right-back. However, the defense has held up well. Alexandre Carrier has played a top-four role extremely well. That’s not to say that David Reinbacher’s arrival in the top four won’t be welcomed, but it’s not the gap that was expected before the start of the playoffs.
In net, halfway through the season, there seemed to be a serious problem. Again, it’s held up brilliantly. Jakub Dobes is the second-best goalie in the playoffs behind only Frederik Andersen, who, at age 36, is putting up the best goaltending of his career.
Dobes isn’t far behind in Goals Saved Above Expected as he’s handled the highs of the playoffs without a single hiccup. Dobes has shown that Canadians are covered up where they didn’t know until they saw the evidence.
The depth of the lineup has also held up remarkably well – better than expected. The club has received excellent performances from so many depth players: Alex Newhook, Kirby Dach, Zachary Bolduc, Alexandre Texier, Jake Evans and Phillip Danault have exceeded expectations.
The offensive stars have had some trouble with regular season numbers, but that’s normal. The club would like more, but there is nothing to deal with. Sometimes a player gets fired up, and other times he loses his mojo.
The only real hole in the lineup that would propel the Canadiens to even greater heights if filled is at second-line center. It is the missing link. Evans is having a tremendous playoff run, but he’s not a scoring center. Evans has the defensive side of the ball, but offense is needed.
Ivan Demidov has just one goal in the playoffs as he hasn’t found a player to connect with to approach his potential. They thought his muse was Oliver Kapanen, but after not missing a game in the regular season, he has fallen so completely out of favor that he can’t even get back into the lineup.
Management was said to be negotiating with Robert Thomas of St. Louis Blues, but the price was too high. If the Canadiens had Thomas in this playoff, they would be favored to go straight to the East in the finals.
Michael Hage opted to play a third season at Michigan. He’d be in the lineup now, given how ready he is, and if Porter Martone is any indication — and he should be — Hage would have been ready.
That’s GM Kent Hughes’ job in the offseason. He should get a second line center. It would take the pressure off Nick Suzuki to always face the opposition’s best players. This would give Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky an easier matchup as well. For the opposing coach, the Canadiens are an easy target: Stop the front line.
The Canadiens are Thomas-types away from two lines with 100-goal potential. When that hole is filled, the Canadiens have shown this spring that they have the ability to win the Stanley Cup. They are already just one win away from the final.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you in after every Canadiens game.
