The truth of the matter is this: unless Keir Starmer leaves, the field of credible contenders to replace him will remain far smaller than the number of people interested in the job. Despite the prime minister’s historic unpopularity with the public, he is still more popular with the party faithful – at last count – than most of his challengers. Whoever comes for the crown would need the support of 81 Labor MPs to secure a place on the ballot. While there are certainly more than enough MPs who now want Starmer to either go immediately or announce a timetable for departure, there is no guarantee that 81 or more will rally behind a single candidate.
When – or if – that challenger emerges, they will face the ranks of Labour, who, as we learned a decade ago, are often a very different kettle of fish to their Commons colleagues.
First, a small plurality – and in some polls a majority – now want their Labor leader to step down at some point in the near future. Of the 46 per cent who wanted Starmer out, the majority preferred it to happen after the last election in May. These figures came from the Survation survey conducted in April, and it is likely that sentiment has only strengthened since then.
But who would win?
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If the parliamentary party were able to rally 81 or more MPs behind a single challenger – deciding that Starmer should not simply be pushed aside, but openly challenged and dethroned – then the list of people capable of dethroning him would still be relatively short.
First up is the man who has yet to secure his way back into parliament: Andy Burnham. His exclusion from the Gorton and Denton candidature is likely to cost Labor a by-election victory and possibly hundreds of council seats for the Greens and Reform. Burnham, however, doesn’t seem to be done. Amid rumors that current aging MPs may vacate their seats to allow him to contest a by-election, it is clear that the Mayor of Greater Manchester believes urgency must determine his next move. Should he be successfully returned to parliament, it would almost certainly precipitate a leadership challenge for Starmer, one Burnham is likely to win.
In such a contest, around 53 per cent of members would support Burnham compared to 37 per cent for Starmer. Notably, most of those who voted for Starmer in 2020 would now switch sides to support Burnham. Longer-serving members are particularly vocal in their preference for the mayor of Manchester. It is only among those who joined since 2020, and among “casual” activists, that Starmer maintains a clear advantage.
But suppose Burnham fails – either because of opposition within the party and the National Executive Committee, or because external opponents, especially the Greens, recognize his political value and would reportedly “throw the kitchen sink” to defeat him in a by-election.
Wes Streeting, whose ministerial allies and supporters in the Commons have reportedly been among the loudest voices discussing Starmer’s succession, would go down well with Labour. Only 30 per cent would choose Streeting against 42 per cent for Starmer.
Ed Miliband – seen by some as a more palatable candidate for Burnham supporters if Burnham himself cannot return to Westminster – would lose narrowly, 44 per cent to 41 per cent, although some earlier polls suggested he might actually beat Starmer. In practice, such a contest may simply be too close to call.
Lucy Powell? Not a chance. Shabana Mahmood? Likewise. Angela Rayner, however, is another matter entirely. She would inherit many of Burnham’s supporters as their second choice. In a head-to-head race, she would beat her former ally 48 percent to 37 — bringing the 2020-2025 Starmer-Rayner pact to a dramatic conclusion.
But a few notes of caution.
The figures quoted here come from Survation’s survey conducted on behalf of Job List in February, before the Gorton and Denton debacle and Labour’s historic defeats in May. This means that the electoral landscape among party activists may now be even more volatile. If further losses sharpen members’ minds, almost any credible challenger can find a clearer path to victory.
The second and third caveats concern the manner in which each challenge to Starmer unfolds. As I write, Labor members in private WhatsApp groups are complaining about the spectacle of events, pointing out the striking – and embarrassing – similarity to the Tory leadership chaos of 2022. And, as Persuasion UK director Steve Akehurst argues, there is a danger that analysts will underestimate the instinct of Labor member leaders.
Where Tory members were often relentless in challenging leaders such as John Major, David Cameron or Rishi Sunak after electoral defeat or political breakdown, Labour’s membership has historically been more reserved. Neil Kinnock was given extra time after 1992. James Callaghan, similarly, was not removed immediately after 1979. This relentless pursuit of power at all costs has never sat well with Labour’s largely middle-class activist base.
With the wrong – or perhaps just less than perfect – challenger chosen by the parliamentary party, Starmer’s career may yet survive. Most members now consider it an electoral liability vis-à-vis the far right. Most members want him gone. But not by any means.
(Further reading: Keir Starmer will be remembered as a pub quiz question)
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