“The Iran war weakens deterrence in Asia, reduces the confidence of US allies and partners, and makes conflict with China more likely.”
This has become an article of faith among those who oppose the US war with Iran.
The US military – particularly the navy – is indeed underpowered and too much US combat power is stationed in the Middle East. There is no deployable aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific and the only forward-based amphibious Marine unit, 31str The MEU is deployed in Iran.
Worryingly, Iran’s war is depleting its war stockpiles – particularly long-range precision missiles and air defense munitions. It is unclear exactly how alarming the situation is, but it is likely that the US does not have what it would like to have to fight China. USINDOPACOM Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo suggested as much internally recent comments.
Does this give Xi Jinping a tantalizing opportunity to make a move on Taiwan or against the Philippines or Japan – or all of them?
Maybe.
But Xi may be having second thoughts.
China has indeed built a powerful military – in what is often described as the largest and fastest military build-up since World War II.
The US War Department’s annual reports on China power make grim reading.
The main short-term mission of the People’s Liberation Army is to conquer Taiwan. She has been working on this problem for at least five decades.
Its naval and air forces can surround the island.
The combined PLA naval and airlift could potentially move quite large forces across the Taiwan Strait.
PLA’s massive missile force can hit Taiwan. It has a fifth column in Taiwan that can help and has been engaged in effective subversion and cognitive warfare against the Taiwanese population for years.
Short and limited
Xi Jinping may like his chances – especially if the war is confined to the area around Taiwan and ends soon – say, in a few weeks.
But taking Taiwan is no sure thing.
The US military still has significant capabilities in the region – even with all that is going on with Iran – and could be reinforced from elsewhere.
Even more, the Americans have shown they know how to fight, as seen in Venezuela and Iran – and by shooting down Houthi missiles in the Red Sea. And, worse, the Chinese air defenses and missiles sold to their proxies have not performed so well.
The PLA also hasn’t been in a real war for 50 years.
Xi I have to wonder.
If the war over Taiwan widens and becomes a global war, China – by its own admission – still cannot protect its global interests.
The PLA is not ready to operate around the world, or project power much more than 1,000 miles from the mainland – even if its missiles can go much further.
Beijing can expect its international trade to grind to a halt – along with energy and food imports.
Chinese companies will be hungry for components and technology to build things that no one will buy anyway.
And banning exports that earn hard currency (mainly US dollars) – as well as departing from the US dollar network – would pose other big problems.
Beijing will have to make do with its own currency, which is not freely convertible. A nice way of saying most people don’t want it.
Try buying Australian iron ore to make steel to build the PLA Navy – or even buy Ivy League professors – without US dollars to pay for the purchases.
And if the attack on Taiwan is not a short affair and the PLA stalls, the Chinese public may not be so understanding – even after an initial surge of nationalism.
Xi has been telling Chinese citizens to prepare to ‘eat bitterness’ for years. But the 600 million people living on $5 a day or less, families with single children whose sons have died, and Xi’s many enemies can blame Xi for the hardships.
And starting a kinetic war might just wake up other countries to the need to better protect themselves — and to cooperate with each other and the United States.
It’s already started – and that’s before a gunfight.
Xi Jinping’s aggressive behavior has led Japan to strengthen its defenses – something that successive US administrations have been unable to achieve.
The Philippines is similarly energized. Indonesian too. Even New Zealand sounds worried about China.
And Americans are clearer about China’s threat than they were a decade ago when warnings — even from military officers — were out in the air in Washington and at USINDOPACOM.
The Europeans? They may be eager, but they’re realizing that defense matters — thanks to Putin and Trump’s tough-love approach.
Global South? Wait until reports of the PLA hitting the Taiwanese come out – and also reports of Chinese investment (and under-the-table payments) dry up.
Even the Russians can only make pro-Beijing statements and shed crocodile tears, leaving the Chinese and Americans to it.
Chinese-funded left-wing groups in America may try to help the cause. But attack Taiwan (or Japan) and US bases in Guam and the Northern Marianas (US territory) and Hawaii and you will kill Americans.
Attack the continent yourself and don’t expect most Americans to get over it anytime soon.
Even America’s quisling class, Wall Street and big business, may finally be having second thoughts about the PRC.
After all, only Xi Jinping knows what he will do.
And he may decide now is the time to make his move while the Americans are occupied in Iran.
But it would be a terrible gamble.
And the Xi and CCP elites are apparently not suicidal. Otherwise, why should they move their wealth, along with their relatives, abroad?
Colonel Grant Newsham (US Marines – Ret.) is the author of When China Strikes: A Warning to America.
