Five more years. A quarter of a century of nationalist rule. The SNP has emerged from another Holyrood election undefeated, seemingly invincible.
After an underwhelming campaign that failed to capture the national imagination, Scotland has got what Scotland apparently wants. John Swinney returned to Bute House, but without a majority he decided to trigger a second independence referendum. An enlarged and empowered group of radical Green MSPs. A small presence for the Reformation. A new bow for Labor and the Tories.
There will be those who say the SNP didn’t do well enough, but they still won 58 of the 129 Scottish Parliament seats – just six short of their 2021 result. After so long in office, and with several years of high-profile scandal and significant policy failure behind them, this is no easy feat. The insurgent wave that is sweeping Great Britain also arrived in Scotland. Reforma won 17 seats, while the Greens secured a record 15 seats. At least these extremes of left and right promise a parliamentary chamber with some boredom.
Reform came in second place together with Labour, also with 17 seats. For Anas Sarwar and his party, the result is a disaster. It was not long ago that they seemed likely to win this election. Instead, they moved back to the 22nd spot in 2021, and were eventually steamrolled by the Nats. Most of the central belt seats that had returned Labor in the 2024 general election were returned to the SNP.
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The result largely mirrored the polls, so perhaps it shouldn’t have come as a surprise. But Labor campaigners are still overwhelmed. The campaign, led by Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander, was the most funded and had the sharpest online presence. But it failed to catch fire. Now there will be questions about whether centering the campaign around Sarwar, for all his charm and energy, was the right strategy. In terms of policy, too, Labour’s manifesto was a damp squib, containing little to grab voters’ attention.
Of course, the main difficulty for Labor was the chronic unpopularity of Keir Starmer and his Westminster government. Starmer has rammed the Labor car across the UK. A decision must now be made about the leadership of the party, not only in London but also in Edinburgh. Sarwar explicitly based his leadership on bringing down the SNP in this election and it has failed, whatever the reasons. Could he face another five years in opposition, under reduced circumstances, being forced to go again and promise victory in 2031? It feels impossible. Russell Findlay, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, faces the same question. The Conservatives won only 12 seats compared to 31 in 2021, the main victims of Reform’s extraordinary growth.
For Swinney, a different set of calculations must be made. He must appoint a new cabinet. He has lost to Angus Robertson after the Lib Dems took his seat in Edinburgh. Kate Forbes, the impressive deputy first minister, has resigned, as have a fair number of long-serving ministers. Will he promote new ministerial talents like Ben Macpherson and Tom Arthur? Will he make room for Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, who is now MSP for Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine? What about experienced ex-MPs like Stephen Gethins, Alyn Smith and Alison Thewliss, newcomers to Holyrood? Now there are some big characters he has to keep happy.
He must also decide on his parliamentary strategy. Swinney seems likely to want to govern as a minority administration. He has sought to move his party to the centre, compared to the more left-wing administrations of Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf. In the absence of a majority, he will have to make deals with other parties to pass the legislation. The Greens are another pro-independence party, but have greater sympathy for Sturgeon’s worldview. Could Swinney make an informal deal with the more centrist Lib Dems? Any prospect of working with Labor rivals?
As for policy, the First Minister must decide whether some of the more attractive policies from his manifesto are worth the trouble. In particular, the pledge to force supermarkets to offer low-cost groceries, which has sparked huge controversy and no small amount of derision, would be a battle that is likely to use a great deal of political capital. Will we ever see a free school bag for every child starting primary school? After all, we’re still waiting for the free bikes and iPads previously promised by the Nats.
And now the election is out of the way, fiscal reality will have to be faced. A £5 billion gap between what the Scottish Government spends and what it brings in is on the horizon. This is the key issue facing politics north of the border, even if politicians sought to ignore it during the campaign. The £1.5 billion in efficiencies promised so far by the SNP look insufficient, even if they are delivered (which is far from certain). Can the Nats really keep the more generous levels of welfare spending, universal benefits and public sector pay they have previously approved above Westminster levels? Having failed to confront the Scots with the need for tough choices during the campaign, how does Swinney find the language to do so now?
Finally, there is the question of independence – there is always the question of independence. By his own metric of securing a majority, Swinney has failed to secure a mandate for a second referendum. The SNP and the Greens, when their countries come together, have that majority, but these were not the terms set out by the First Minister and would not be accepted by the UK government. That doesn’t mean Swinney will be silent about what is ultimately his party reason to be. He is likely to push for a formal deal with Westminster on a process to agree another plebiscite and complain bitterly if one is not imminent. He is also likely to use the success of Reform south of the border, where it is significantly more successful (so far) than in Scotland, to paint a picture of the two nations drifting further apart. And the sting of Brexit remains a powerful recruiting force.
It has been said that, given the scale of the challenges facing the incoming government, these could be a good choice to miss. John Swinney is about to find out.
(Further reading: There is nothing to suggest that Plaid Cymru can save Wales)
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