A Socialist candidate led in Paris, while the far right looked strong in several southern cities, as forecasts came in from first-round local elections on Sunday, seen as a political barometer ahead of France’s presidential election.
A centrist named as a contender for the 2027 presidential race, Edouard Philippe, was well positioned to remain mayor of the northern city of Le Havre in a second round of local elections within a week, according to initial results.
The centrist former prime minister, seen as one of the best candidates to take on the far-right Rally National (RN) party in next year’s presidential race, had made his re-election in the port city a precondition of his 2027 campaign.
Analysts see local races as an early indicator of key trends and tactical voting patterns ahead of the presidential showdown.
The RN sees next year’s race as its strongest chance of taking power, with centrist President Emmanuel Macron stepping down after the maximum two terms in office.
Elections in about 35,000 villages, towns and municipalities are held in two rounds on consecutive Sundays.
In more than 90% of municipalities, the mayor was expected to be elected in the first round.
But races in many larger cities were expected to go into second rounds, with parties rushing to reach agreements and form alliances.
In Paris, Socialist candidate Emmanuel Gregoire was ahead of former culture minister Rachida Dati, according to forecasts by two pollsters.
Dati hopes to take control of the city from the left, which has run the French capital for the past quarter century.
‘Change will not wait’
The RN was on course to be re-elected in Perpignan, the largest city so far under the control of the anti-immigration party, according to a projection by the IPSOS poll.
The far-right party’s candidate was also in the lead in the southern city of Toulon ahead of the current mayor, forecasts showed.
In France’s second city, Marseille, a left-wing incumbent mayor was neck-and-neck with a far-right candidate.
“Change will not wait for 2027. It starts next Sunday. It starts in seven days,” RN leader Jordan Bardella told supporters.
He also claimed that “several outgoing mayors” from the party were re-elected in the first round.
Historically, France’s major cities have been governed by either center-left parties or right-wing republicans.
In contrast, the RN, the far-left party of Jean-Luc Melenchon and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists have struggled to establish a strong local footprint.
RN sees the elections as an opportunity to show that it can govern at the local level.
While the vast majority of France’s communes are small rural areas where local elections are traditionally depoliticized, the contests can nevertheless provide a snapshot of the state of the country, political scientist Nonna Mayer said ahead of the first round.
“In the big cities, national issues will matter more and they can give some hints on the electoral dynamics of the major parties,” Mayer told AFP.
Whoever wins cities like Paris, Lyon, Marseille and Nice will matter, she added.
Turnout ‘record low’
Many mayoral candidates have distanced themselves from political parties, reflecting voter frustration with elites and the paralysis that has gripped the country since Macron announced early elections in 2024.
Pollsters said turnout on Sunday was the lowest in the country, excluding the last local elections in 2020 held during the Covid pandemic.
According to estimates by some polling organizations, overall turnout was between 56% and 58.5%, compared to 63.55% in the equivalent election in 2014.
Leaving 2020 aside, “we have reached a record low under the Fifth Republic”, the political system since 1958, Francois Kraus of the IFOP polling institute told AFP.
Alliances are expected to be key on Sunday next week.
Bardella called on centre-right politicians to join forces with the RN, while Greens leader Marine Tondelier urged left-wing politicians to unite to “eliminate” the right and far-right in the second round.
(cz)
