Japan’s House of Representatives approved the 2026 budget on Friday, setting the stage for a fight in the upper house – where the government lacks a majority – as opposition parties seek to delay the budget (they cannot block it indefinitely) and deal a political blow to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
The Prime Minister asked a question about sending warships to the Persian Gulf. And the Bank of Japan looks set to keep interest rates steady at its policy board meeting next week.
The ruling parties succeeded passing by budget in the House of Representatives on Friday, March 13, after refusing an opposition bid to postpone a vote on a motion proposing the removal of the chairman of the budget committee. The lower room too ADOPTED bond issue and tax reform bills.
The bitterness among lawmakers is palpable. Mainici describes a veteran lawmaker so angry he had “steam blown out of their ears.” The lawmaker said: “In my long years, this is the first time I have seen a diet that was like a runaway train.
The newspaper points out that the opposition is particularly angry not only about the scant time for debate, but also about the absence of subcommittee meetings for the first time since 1989.
Opposition members have also criticized the prime minister’s avoidance of direct questions, with cabinet ministers stepping in to answer even though the ruling and opposition parties agreed last year to reduce the time cabinet ministers must be involved in budget committee discussions.
Lawmakers from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may share the feeling of concern about the government’s approach, but dissenting opinions have been all but silent.
In a sign of friction to come as the budget heads to the upper house, the Takaichi government received no votes from any of the opposition parties.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDFP), behind her Offers to support the budget if the government has scheduled the vote for next week is rejected by the ruling parties, opposed that. DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki said that the government was prioritizing its “honour” – fulfilling a pledge to pass the budget before the end of the fiscal year – rather than pausing to accept changing conditions and prepare an interim budget that could address the situation in the Middle East while the Diet debated the overall budget at its usual pace.
Meanwhile, Center Reform Alliance (CRA) leader Junya Ogawa urged the government to take a more humble stance in managing the legislature. The Mirai team, which once hinted at the possibility of budget support, they joined with the CRA to file the impeachment motion against budget committee chairman Tetsushi Sakamoto and voted against the budget.
Despite the lack of a majority in the upper house, the government is determined to push through and approve the budget before March 31, ignoring warnings by PLD officials that its approach to the lower house could not only jeopardize the budget in the upper house, but complicate the legislative process beyond the budget.
Without a majority and with a maximum of ten days of legislative work before the end of the fiscal year, the government has virtually no margin for error – and with no interim budget in place, the government is heading into upper house discussions next week with little room for compromise. Any delay will force a scramble to raise an interim budget. This would reflect badly on the prime minister.
The LDP and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) agreed on Friday for the debate to begin on Monday, March 16, but there are big questions dependent on the deliberations of the upper chamber. In general, the House of Councilors spends less time than the lower house – roughly 70%-80% as many hours – but with the lower house spending a historically short time, the opposition does not find that standard adequate and demands at least sixty hours of deliberations.
For some budget-related bills – though not the budget itself – the government will also have to deal with committees controlled by the CDP. The government’s best chance of success is, of course, to convince an opposition party to support the budget, but after the process of moving it through the lower house there may not be an easy way to find a partner among the opposition parties.
With the budget approved by the lower house, it will take effect on April 11 even if the upper house blocks it entirely; for the same reason, however, because Takaichi made the budget approval by March 31 as a sign of her authority, she has given the opposition parties enough reason to resist in the upper house, especially now that they want revenge for not respecting parliamentary norms.
Takaichi: “Nothing has been decided” on sending self-defense forces to Hormuz
During the final round of questions in the budget committee on Friday, Prime Minister Takaichi said that “nothing has been decided” regarding the dispatch of Self-Defense Forces (SDF) ships to escort the ships to the Strait of Hormuz. She said she intended to explain Japan’s position on the Middle East directly to US President Donald Trump at their March 19 summit.
Meanwhile, the Center Reform Alliance and its partner parties petitioned government to take steps to ensure the safety and well-being of the crews of Japan-bound ships – said to be 59 – stranded in the Persian Gulf by Iran’s closure of the strait.
The Bank of Japan is likely to hold
Amid uncertainty about the economic impact of the US-led war against Iran, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) EMERGE is unlikely to raise interest rates again when the policy board meets on March 18-19.
The BOJ is by no means ruling out an additional rate hike – April remains a possibility, especially after the full results of spring wage negotiations are reached – but market volatility and uncertainty about the duration of the war and its impact on inflation could prompt caution from the bank as it seeks clarity on the direction of the Japanese economy.
Meanwhile, at her post-cabinet press conference on Friday, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned which were close to the 160 JPY/USD threshold, the government can take any measures at any time to reduce the impact of a rise in crude oil prices. She also noted that finance ministry authorities are in “closer” contact with US authorities, hinting at the possibility of further joint efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.
of Tobias Harris Japan Foresight LLC originally published this articlewhich Asia Times is reprinting with permission. For more information about Japan Foresight’s services or information on how to register for a trial or schedule a conference, visit its website or I extend my hand to him.
