The global geo-economic instability caused by the second presidency of Donald Trump of the USA and hostilities in the Middle East mean that change in China’s strategy for Africa even more important for China and for Africa.
China’s strategy for Africa began to shift in 2019, towards investment. It is anchored in Hunan province.
“Hunan model” appeared because “Angola model“(building infrastructure and extracting resources) faced obstacles to sustainability. Given the vulnerability of African countries to shocks, they often struggle to keep up with rising debt payments. Another factor was China’s changing domestic needs.
Traditional trade partnerships and growth corridors were also increasingly contested and subject to high trade barriers. Under these pressures, Beijing chose Hunan province to become the “project implementation unit” for a new era of trade and development between China and Africa.
The model has become more important since the official approval of China-Africa Deep Economic and Trade Cooperation Pilot Zone at the beginning of 2024 and the growth of China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo since the beginning in 2019.
It seeks to deepen and bring greater balance to China-Africa trade and industrial integration. It is also at the center of efforts to overcome the three main obstacles to African development – shortages of capital, skilled labor and infrastructure – while providing China with a secure and growing supply of resources.
Based on the years of study China-Africa trade relationsI argue that the tensions in the Middle East and the economic disruptions they have caused globally will accelerate China’s push towards renewables and the electrification of its economy. It will also accelerate its push into new markets. This has implications for Africa.
Hunan Province is central to green transportation and construction, heavy industry and mineral processing. It is also central to China’s economic relations with Africa.
What is Hunan for?
At the heart of the Hunan Model are two national policy initiatives:
The capital of Hunan province, Changsha, is home to the third largest wholesale market in China, Gaoqiao Big Market. It is the main distribution center for African non-goods imports landing in and near Changsha and passing through “green lanes” that expedite African exports to China.
The market has a permanent trade facilitation room where African countries trade their goods directly and which provides other trade services.
The Hunan model also has three functional areas to support trade between landlocked Hunan and the world, with an emphasis on Africa:
The China-Africa Cooperation Area also has five “functional groups” that guide trade, investment and industrial development between and within China and African nations.
These target specific sectors where Hunan excels – and which match the potential for growth and industrialization in Africa. Among them are construction machinery, mining equipment and processing of precious metals.
of China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo includes the permanent exhibition hall in the area and a series of trade exhibitions, held in China and Africa.
In recent years, as I detailed in a journal articlea series of China-Africa Economic and Trade Exhibition events have also begun to appear in African countries, including Kenya and Nigeria.
Impact of conflict in the Middle East
The importance of the Hunan Model has, arguably, been heightened by Trump’s second presidency and the intensification of US-China trade tensions.
As Western markets become more restrictive, China has turned to the Global South with remarkable speed. Africa is no exception. In 2025, while China’s total foreign trade increased by 3.8%China-Africa trade grew by 17.7%.
Recently, tensions in the Middle East have provided a dramatic shock to the global economy and its energy supply chains. This is likely to intensify China’s push towards renewables AND the electrification of its economy. It could also increase global demand for electric vehicles, and it is Hunan province that is home to Chinese e-vehicle giant BYD.
Given Hunan’s centrality to China’s renewables industry, especially electrical transformation and mineral processing, as well as construction, the Hunan Model could usher in a new era driven by renewables in China and between China and Africa as well.
In 2025, “the biggest peak” of Changsha’s exports to Africa was the explosive growth of the “three new items”. These are lithium batteries, electric vehicles and photovoltaic products. Hunan’s exports of these items in Africa grew by 160.4%, 840.4% and 62.1% year-on-yearrespectively. That is why they have become a new “calling card” for Hunan’s exports to Africa.
Besides electric transportation companies like BYD, Hunan Province is also home to electric railway giants like CRRCwhich is at the heart of growing “green” rail exports. Additionally, in the wake of the conflict in Iran, China has announced a new research and innovation center for rare minerals, to be set up in Changsha, Hunan.
Avoiding ‘The Last Africa’
While the Hunan model offers a focus on overcoming non-tariff barriers to trade and an industry-focused alternative to past export-heavy policies, risks remain. Large scale Chinese exports to Africa – increased 17.7% in 2025 as African exports to China rose only 5.4% – highlights a growing trade imbalance.
African countries and sub-regions must build their own industrial supply chains, as China did with investment from former industrial giants.
The Hunan Model has its own research alliance of Chinese researchers and industry experts to inform its progress and advancement. African nations seek their equivalent.
Shock after shock is rocking the world economy. The Hunan model is no longer just an experiment or a political idea. It is driving China-Africa economic transformation. It offers potential for growth and development in China and Africa.
Lauren Johnston is Associate Professor, Center for China Studies, University of Sydney
This article was reprinted from Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read on original article.
