Less than 24 hours after Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “fully open” on Friday (April 17th), it was effectively closed again. Iran’s top military leadership accused the US of “sea piracy” and announced that the Strait of Hormuz had “returned to its previous state” and was under “strict control of the armed forces”.
Two Indian-flagged ships reported coming under fire in the strait from Iranian gunboats on Saturday (April 18) before turning back. India’s foreign secretary summoned the Iranian ambassador that evening to convey his government’s “deep concern” over the “firing incident”. Despite this, Donald Trump initially insisted that the ceasefire talks were “actually going very well”, although he also warned Iran not to “blackmail” the US. But now, as of Sunday evening, a US Navy destroyer has attacked and captured an Iranian cargo ship that has breached the US blockade.
The weekend’s developments were a stark contrast to what now looks like a premature one victory lap from the American president on friday. After the announcement that the strait was open, Trump responded with a series of triumphant social media posts, writing that Iran had “agreed never to close the Strait of Hormuz again” and “would no longer be used as a weapon against the world!” He declared it a “GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD!”
Trump also assured reporters at the White House that Iran had agreed to hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, or what he called “nuclear dust,” suggesting another round of negotiations would soon follow with the country’s “very reasonable” new leaders. “They’re willing to do things today that they weren’t willing to do two months ago,” Trump insisted.
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Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and head of the country’s negotiating team at the talks, responded to the president’s statements in a series of social media posts that evening, writing that Trump had “made seven claims in one hour, seven of which were false” and that the US “did not win the war with these lies.” Trump’s threatening megaphone diplomacy appears to have shattered the tentative detente that was in place.
In a televised address on April 18, Ghalibaf said the US must “earn the trust of the Iranian people” and abandon its coercive and unilateral approach. He, too, declared victory, insisting that by withstanding the US-Israeli attack, Iran had already effectively won. “When the enemy fails to achieve his objectives, it means that he has been defeated,” Galibaf said.
And so, 48 hours after what was presented as a major breakthrough, the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz has resumed. The crucial waterway, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas typically passes, remains effectively closed by Iran. The US naval blockade of all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports is still in effect. The mirage of an imminent end to the conflict has vanished. Hard choices on both sides of this war remain.
Neither Iran nor the US appear eager to resume full-scale fighting, yet neither, so far, appears willing to accept the other’s terms for peace. The leaders of both countries seem to believe, in Trumpian parlance, that they still hold the decisive cards. For the US, this means the ability to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and destroy the country’s economy. Trump warned on Friday (April 17) that if no deal is reached by the time the current 14-day ceasefire expires on Wednesday (April 22), “we’re going to have to start dropping bombs again.” Iran retains the ability to hold a significant portion of the world’s energy supplies hostage and wreak havoc on the global economy through control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Indeed, the fundamentals had not changed as much as Trump’s euphoric statements in recent days suggested. When Iran’s foreign minister announced last week that the strait was open, he clarified that all ships would still have to use the “coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Even then, Tehran seemed reluctant to relinquish its powerful influence over the strait, which is apparently why the US naval blockade also remains in place.
Beyond the public frontier, diplomatic efforts seem to be quietly going on behind the scenes. Tehran said over the weekend that it was considering “new proposals” received from the US through Pakistan. Trump said on Sunday that a delegation of US officials led by Vice President JD Vance will travel to Islamabad today for a new round of talks. The coming days could see an extension of the current ceasefire if those negotiations produce progress and a real step towards ending this war. Failing that, it is just as likely that this conflict will reignite, as both sides assess that they hold the stronger hand and move to call the other’s bluff.
In a social media post on Sunday, Trump duly repeated his earlier threats to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if the country’s leadership did not accept his terms. “We are offering a very fair and reasonable deal,” the US president wrote. “I hope they get it because if they don’t, the United States will take down every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran.”
(Further reading: We are all stuck in Donald Trump’s cage fight)
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