A gloom has settled over the Parliamentary Labor Party (PLP), and not for the first time this year. After the recent revelations about the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US, a consensus has been reached among Labor MPs: this looks terrible for the Prime Minister and the party. When asked by New statesman how was the mood in the PLP, One MP replied “Lol, bad.”
A sacrifice has already been made. Oliver Robbins – Theresa May’s chief Brexit negotiator and now former permanent secretary at the Foreign Office – was sacked by the prime minister last night. Keir Starmer’s defense of Mandelson’s appointment remains that he was not told by Foreign Office officials that the security services had recommended that the Labor colleague not be given the job. But will this be enough to convince his MPs?
Although Labor MPs are united in their view of how dire the situation is for the government, there is a diversity of views within the PLP on what can and should happen next. Some are holding fire before making an assessment. Starmer will address the Commons on Monday, where he has confirmed he will “present all the relevant facts in true transparency”.
Some are waiting until then to assess the damage and many have returned to their constituencies. As one Labor source said, “After Samantha Niblett’s wild week, I think people have just gone home.” The MP for South Derbyshire hit the headlines this week with her call for a “summer of sex”.
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Others await local elections to be held on May 7. MPs are worried about losses in strongholds such as London and the North East, as well as being kicked out of government in Wales. An email from the leftist group Mainstream was sent to its members (and seen by New statesman) pledged support for Labor candidates in the next election, arguing that they will face an even greater challenge in May, and encouraged its members to redouble their efforts. The email suggested that the wider Labor Party may be forced to pay the price for failures at the top of government.
Will the prospect of such a poor result boost Starmer’s chances? One MP said they could not see anyone in the party moving against the Prime Minister before polling day because “it would further damage a weak Labor campaign”. But, they added, “Keir is just a lame duck with no authority.” Another MP described the latest revelations as “an irritation rather than terminal”.
However, there is always an ongoing race for the Labor leadership, even when there is no vacancy. Andy Burnham supporters – fresh from a rebrand, like Ethan Croft wrote about New statesman this week – are still in the works. A soft-left source said the revelations in recent days simply “underscore the undeniable case for Andy”. Although the team around Starmer may have changed since he was elected – Morgan McSweeney is the most high-profile departure – the source argued that if “what comes next is not a decisive break, then the public will not hear it”. They added: “Who better to signal a break than the guy who hasn’t even been in the building?”
But isn’t that the point? Burnham remains out of parliament after being blocked by Labour’s National Executive Committee from standing as the party’s candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year. There is skepticism among the PLP that any of the possible replacements for the Prime Minister are ready to challenge. As one Labor source said: “Which of Angela, Wes, Shabana, Lucy or whoever else might be ready to run?” Of the two main contenders, Angela Rayner is still waiting for HMRC to sign off on her tax files and Wes Streeting’s perceived closeness to Mandelson could cause trouble.
With tough local elections fast approaching, this renewed focus on Mandelson’s nomination is unlikely to endear Labor MPs to their leader. Last night the Prime Minister tried to woo some of them by asking the party’s parliamentary private secretaries to send him a personal message from him laying out the facts. But the seeds of doubt have already been planted. A deputy summed up the last 24 hours quite well: “What a mess”.
(Further reading: The Labor left is cheating)
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