53% of Canadians want Carney Liberals to win majority in primary: poll – National

Just over half of Canadians want federal Liberals to win enough mandates in Monday’s early elections to give the Prime Minister Mark Carney or majority governmentsuggests the new survey.

of Survey them conducted exclusively for Global News found that 53 per cent of Canadians want the Liberals to form a majority, while 47 per cent oppose the idea.

Support is split between liberal and conservative voters, but 56 percent of PRD voters also said they would prefer the liberals to win enough the three internal elections held on Monday to form a majority.

Two of the first three elections are in areas of Toronto that are considered safe Liberal seats, making it possible for the government to cross the 172-seat majority threshold in the House of Commons.

“I think liberals will sleep well on Sunday night and get ready to party on Monday,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.

The Liberals edged closer to a majority as Marilyn Gladu became the fourth former Tory MP and the fifth to pass the floor since December 2025 on Wednesday.

MP Lori Idlout defected to the Liberals from PKD last month.

Although most Canadians have expressed displeasure with MPs switching parties in past Ipsos polls, Bricker said Canadians seem to be accepting what’s leading up to it in this case.

“Even if people don’t necessarily like the means, the ends of stability — especially in a situation where the country is dealing with a lot of big issues, including its position with the United States — Canadians seem to think that’s OK,” he said.

The prospect of a majority Liberal government puts more pressure on conservative leader Pierre Poilievre amid a growing exodus from his caucus, Bricker added, despite a decisive outcome of a leadership vote in January.

“He can’t make the argument, which is, ‘You need me to be around because there could be an election any day,'” he said. “There won’t be an election any day. So caucus relations will be a big part of what Mr. Poilievre will have to do over the next period of time.

“When the concerned members in the opposition have nothing to worry about, and there’s no prospect of being in government, and they haven’t been in government since 2015, well, empty hands are the devil’s workshop.”

The Ipsos poll suggests more bad news for the Conservatives.

If a general election were held tomorrow, 33 percent of voters would choose the Conservatives, three points less than last month. Meanwhile, the Liberals rose one point to 45 percent support.

The Liberals now lead the Conservatives by 12 points – four times the gap between the two parties in December 2025, which was also the margin at last year’s election.

“Those double digits come from somewhere,” Bricker said.

“Last year, they only came from the NDP. Now they’re also coming from the Conservatives, and the groups that voted disproportionately Conservative, more likely to vote Conservative last time, are now looking at the Liberals and getting comfortable with them.”

This includes younger voters, who flocked to the Conservatives in the 2025 election, believing the party was best equipped to address affordability issues.

Now, according to a new Ipsos poll, 29 percent of respondents aged 18 to 35 say they would vote for the Liberals, compared to 22 percent who chose the Conservatives.

Men and women are now equally likely to vote Liberal at around 45 per cent each, the poll found, despite Ipsos saying men have historically been more likely to vote Conservative.

“(Poilievre) is getting lost in the demographic perspective,” Bricker said. “You can’t go from three to a dozen points behind without losing the people who voted for you in the last election. And that’s what he’s losing.”

Conservative support remains highest in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, although that support stands at less than half of all voters polled in those provinces.

The NDP would win nine percent of the vote if the election were held tomorrow, according to the poll, one point more than last month but equal to the number in December.

The Bloc Québécois remained unchanged at seven percent nationally (29 percent in Quebec), while the Green party stands at two percent, down one point. The People’s Party of Canada rose one point from last month to two per cent.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 2 and 7, 2026, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ were interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were used to ensure that the composition of the sample reflected that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The accuracy of Ipsos online polls is measured using a confidence interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, if all Canadians aged 18+ were polled. The confidence interval will be wider between population subgroups. All surveys and sample surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, coverage error and measurement error.

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