Europe’s strategic environment is changing rapidly. Russia’s war in Ukraine, instability across the Middle East, growing insecurity in the Red Sea and renewed concerns over supply chain sustainability have prompted the European Union (EU) to reassess its external partnerships.
At the same time, the competition between the EU’s Global Gateway initiative and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), together with Europe’s pursuit of greater strategic autonomy, has expanded the geopolitical importance of the countries connecting Europe to Asia and the Gulf.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan is becoming increasingly difficult to view primarily through the traditional lens of trade preferences, governance debates and human rights.
The recent meetings between the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Ishaq Dar and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, together with 8th Pakistan-EU Strategic Dialogue in Islamabad, suggest that the relationship is entering a more strategic phase.
Europe’s priorities are evolving faster than its policy towards Pakistan, and this gap is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain. The question is no longer whether Pakistan and the European Union should cooperate, but whether Brussels can move beyond a relationship centered on GSP+ and governance debates to one that reflects today’s geopolitical realities.
The economic partner turned into a strategic stakeholder
The European Union remains Pakistan’s largest export destination, with General Preference Plus Scheme (GSP+) forming the foundation of bilateral economic relations.
Preferential access to European markets has strengthened Pakistan’s export industries, created employment and encouraged progress in implementing international conventions on labor rights, environmental protection and governance.
GSP+ remains an important pillar of the relationship, but it no longer defines it. As Europe diversifies supply chains, expands connectivity through the Global Gateway and strengthens it engagement throughout Indo-Pacific, South Asia and the Gulf, Pakistan’s strategic location has become increasingly important.
Positioned at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and the Arabian Sea, Pakistan occupies a critical space for regional trade, energy corridors, maritime security and new connectivity networks.
Europe is expanding partnership with India has become an important element of its Indo-Pacific strategy. At the same time, maintaining constructive engagement with Pakistan is equally important if Brussels seeks a balanced South Asia policy that supports regional stability, expands diplomatic options and avoids viewing the region through a single strategic lens.
The last one Pakistan-EU engagements reflect this broader agenda. Discussions now extend beyond trade and investment to climate resilience, education, migration, digital cooperation and regional diplomacy.
Shared concerns about instability in the Middle East, maritime security in the Red Sea and resilient global supply chains have reinforced the importance of sustained political engagement.
Despite these expanding areas of cooperation, trust continues to be shaped by different perspectives on democracy, governance, human rights and security. These differences often reflect contrasting political experiences and strategic priorities rather than fundamentally opposing interests.
Democracy, security and competing narratives
European foreign policy still places considerable emphasis on democracy, constitutional freedoms and human rights. Pakistan broadly shares these principles but maintains that its democratic development must also be understood within the context of its constitutional evolution, socio-economic conditions and a demanding security environment.
Over the past two decades, Pakistan has experienced repeated constitutional transfers of power, competitive elections, an active judiciary, a vibrant media landscape, and growing civil society participation. Like many emerging democracies, it continues to pursue institutional reforms while simultaneously facing significant security challenges.
These challenges remain central to Pakistan’s relations with Europe. For more than two decades, Pakistan has conducted extensive counter-terrorism operations at considerable human, economic and institutional cost.
The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan has renewed concerns about cross-border militancy, while ongoing instability has implications for irregular migration, terrorism, organized crime and regional connectivity issues that increasingly influence Europe’s security agenda.
Therefore, Islamabad argues that governance and human rights assessments must be considered alongside these security realities. European policy makers, meanwhile, claim that democratic institutions and fundamental rights are essential for long-term stability.
The challenge is not to choose between security and democracy, but to recognize that sustainable security ultimately depends on resilient democratic institutions, just as democratic progress requires a stable security environment.
Another issue that requires careful management concerns activities related to separatist or extremist organizations operating within European jurisdictions. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns that some individuals or groups exploit democratic freedoms to spread disinformation, mobilize financial support or promote violent agendas.
European governments, for their part, remain committed to protecting legitimate political activism and freedom of expression. The common interest lies in ensuring that democratic freedoms are not misused to facilitate the financing of terrorism or the incitement of violence – a distinction that depends on evidence-based investigations, judicial cooperation and due process.
New era, new partnership
The strategic logic for closer Pakistan-Europe cooperation is becoming increasingly compelling. Europe’s search for resilient supply chains, secure sea lanes and reliable regional partners has increased the value of countries able to connect South Asia, Central Asia and the Gulf. Geography alone does not make a country strategically important.
What raises the importance of Pakistan today is the convergence of its location, counter-terrorism experience, migration management, maritime access and growing role in regional connectivity. If European policy continues to view Pakistan primarily through the prism of GSP+ conditionality, it risks overlooking the broader geopolitical role the country can play.
Both partners also face similar challenges in the information field. Disinformation, extremist propaganda and hybrid threats have become defining features of contemporary geopolitics.
Closer cooperation in strategic communication, digital resilience, intelligence sharing, judicial cooperation and disruption of terrorist financing would strengthen the security interests of Pakistan and Europe.
The latest diplomatic engagement reflects this gradual change. The Strategic Dialogue in Islamabad and the meeting between Ishaq Dar and Kaja Kallas in Manila demonstrated a willingness to expand cooperation beyond trade to regional security, connectivity, climate action and geopolitical coordination.
This evolution reflects a wider strategic reality: developments in Afghanistan following NATO’s withdrawal, instability across the Middle East, maritime insecurity and intensifying competition in the Indo-Pacific have increased Pakistan’s importance to Europe’s foreign strategy.
As Europe adjusts to an era of geopolitical competition, fragmented supply chains and continued instability in its southern neighbourhood, Pakistan’s strategic importance is likely to increase rather than decrease.
The future of Pakistan-Europe relations will be determined less by preferential tariffs than by whether both sides recognize that their strategic interests are converging faster than their policies.
If Brussels and Islamabad can translate this convergence into lasting political trust, the relationship could evolve from a successful trade partnership into one of the most important geopolitical bridges connecting Europe and South Asia in an increasingly multipolar world.
Saima Afzal is a scholar specializing in South Asian security, counter-terrorism and broader geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, Afghanistan and the Indo-Pacific. She is currently a research scholar at the Justus Liebig University, Germany.
