Britain is maturing. According to YouGov, around seven in ten agree climate change is the main driver of June heat waves – a belief that however, it does not translate into a greater willingness to do more to fight it.
The cost of living is still consuming our politics. Even potential Green voters say drilling for oil in the North Sea is not a bad shout. But will the next Chancellor of the Exchequer agree?
Ed Miliband is the clear favorite to replace Rachel Reeves after Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister. However, the exclusive survey by growth think tank Merlin Strategy exposes a public concern even among Labor voters themselves about the net zero minister.
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Only one in five Labor voters in 2024 say they have no concerns about Miliband becoming chancellor. More than a third, meanwhile, say he would be very much in favor of net zero or that “he won’t cut energy bills.” Ten percent say he would increase borrowing, while 11 percent say he would “raise taxes on me.”
All parts of that Labor base are concerned that Miliband will not cut energy bills, including more than a fifth of Labor voters in 2024 who now support the Greens.
Voters overwhelmingly want their government to prioritize reducing costs for businesses and households above net zero. When asked to choose between the two, they prefer cutting costs by a margin of four to one – 79 percent to 21 percent. Even three-quarters of Labor voters who have moved to the Greens support cutting energy bills over carbon emissions. It’s two-thirds among people aged 18-24 and 85 percent among those 35-44. Other pollsters including undecided show similar margins.
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Looking for Growth co-founder Lawrence Newport is candid about what the responses tell us: “The public is almost entirely unanimous: the government must scrap the bills immediately, even at the expense of rising emissions. To really put itself first, Andy Burnham must prioritize reducing energy costs for businesses and households across Britain.”
Burnham is taking over a government perceived as too ideological on net zero and too indifferent to families struggling with the cost of living.
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Few voters say they feel a materially positive change in their circumstances as a result of a Labor government. Of Keir Starmer’s policy decisions, the one they remember most is his move to withdraw winter fuel support in the early months of his administration.
According to More in common39 percent of voters think Burnham should be free to set his own policies and taxes. Just 35 per cent say he should stick to the Starmer manifesto. If Burnham wants to change the course of this Labor government, voters won’t stop him.
Commissioned by Looking for Growth, Merlin Strategy surveyed 1,000 voters who voted Labor in 2024 on 2 and 3 July.
(Further reading: Ed Balls: Burnham can’t miss this chance to tackle regional inequality)
